Posts

The 2026 Housing Shift: Why the Northeast is Booming and Florida is Cooling

Image
If you’re looking for the heart of the housing market in 2026, you’ll need to pack a coat.  According to Zillow’s latest annual forecast, the "sun and sand" dominance of years past has officially shifted. For the first time in recent memory, Florida has failed to land a single city in the top ten hottest markets. While the Sunshine State grapples with rising insurance costs and stabilizing inventory, the Northeast has become the nation’s primary battleground for real estate. Hartford Takes the Crown The new "hottest market" in America is Hartford, Connecticut. Moving up from the #4 spot last year, Hartford is bracing for a year of "bidding wars and broken hearts."  The numbers tell a clear story: 66.4% of homes sold over asking price last year. Inventory is a staggering 63% below pre-pandemic levels. Home values are projected to grow by 3.9% in 2026, the fastest pace in the nation. The Rise of the Rust Belt and the Northeast Hartford isn't an outlier; ...

Why "Busy" Isn't the Same as "Profitable": Solving the Modular Customization Crisis

Image
​ Every modular factory I know says they understand the difference between standardized builder homes and bespoke, one-off projects. But when you look closely at how many factories actually cost those homes, a different story emerges. On paper, bespoke homes often get priced like standard models—same labor assumptions, same overhead logic, same margin expectations. The only difference? A few extra line items and a little extra contingency. That’s not strategy. That’s wishful thinking with a calculator. Let’s talk honestly about why this confusion quietly drains profits and why the industry at large continues to struggle with the promise of "efficient" modular building. The Standardized Sweet Spot Standard builder models are the backbone of profitable modular factories for one simple reason: predictability. They move smoothly through production because the engineering is complete, details are known, materials are stocked, and crews repeat the same tasks. When you cost a standa...

Ash to Assets: New Data Reveals the True Financial Toll of the 2025 Palisades & Eaton Fires

Image
​ One year later, the smoke has long since cleared over Los Angeles, but for the residents of Pacific Palisades and Altadena, the view remains bleak. We are finally getting a look at the "true cost" of the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires, and the numbers are just as staggering as the charred landscapes left behind. While the headlines have moved on, the recovery is lagging. For many, "home" is still a hotel room or a temporary rental. Here is the reality of where we stand 12 months post-disaster. The $8.3 Billion Disappearing Act According to a recent analysis by Realtor.com®, the financial crater left by these fires is deep. In the celebrity-laden enclave of Pacific Palisades, home values in the fire zones plummeted from $14.7 billion to $10.8 billion. Meanwhile, in working-class Altadena, values dropped from $7 billion to $4.7 billion. In total, an estimated $8.3 billion in housing wealth was erased across these two communities alone. This doesn't even account ...

The 2025 Housing Turning Point: How Maine is Leading the National Shift Toward Affordability

Image
2025 has officially become a banner year for housing reform. Across the country, the conversation around the housing crisis has shifted from "if" we should build to "how fast" we can unlock supply to meet the needs of working families. According to recent data from the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, state legislatures are finally stepping up. In the 12 months leading up to June 2025, 124 pro-housing bills were passed nationwide—a staggering jump from the 40 bills passed during the same period just two years ago. "It’s been a phenomenal year for housing supply wins," says Salim Furth, director of the Urbanity project at Mercatus. From Texas to California, the momentum is moving toward density, transparency, and the fundamental right to build. A National Wave of Reform While every state faces unique challenges, the 2025 reforms centered on a few key "bottlenecks" that have historically stifled new development: Texas: Passed seven signi...

Fix It in ’26

Image
​ Happy New Year’s Eve. Next week I’ll share some predictions for 2026, but before we rush ahead, it feels worth pausing for a moment and looking back at the year we’re closing out. 2025 was… a year. On a personal level, I’m grateful. Everyone in my life stayed healthy. Business was strong. We made real progress on our workforce housing efforts, which continues to be some of the most meaningful work I’ve ever been part of. For me, it was a very good year. But if I’m being honest, the broader mood out there felt heavy. The headlines were unsettling. A lot of people seemed on edge. Between political tension, economic anxiety, and the rapid rise of AI, it often felt like nobody quite knew what the future was going to look like. The vibes, as the kids say, were bad. I asked a simple question on social media recently: How was 2025 for you? About 30% said “okay.” Another 30% said “poor,” “bad,” or “terrible.” That felt about right. So how do we even measure how things are going anymore? I ca...

Project Skiway: Revolutionizing Workforce Housing at Sunday River with Modular and 3D Printing

Image
​ The slopes of ski resorts offer unparalleled beauty and exhilaration, but behind every perfectly groomed trail and steaming hot cocoa lies a complex operation powered by a dedicated workforce. From lift operators and ski instructors to hospitality staff and maintenance crews, these individuals are the lifeblood of the winter economy. Yet, across North America, a silent crisis is threatening this very foundation: affordable workforce housing. We believe in innovative solutions to pressing problems. That’s why we’re thrilled to announce Project Skiway , a groundbreaking initiative to tackle the ski resort housing crunch head-on. Our pilot program kicks off at one of the East Coast’s most beloved destinations: Sunday River in Newry, Maine. The Unseen Challenge: Workforce Housing at Ski Resorts The problem is stark. Ski resorts are often located in remote, picturesque areas where land is scarce and property values are soaring, driven by second-home buyers and vacation rentals. This cr...

Florida’s Potential 9% Valuation Spike: A Developer’s Look at the Property Tax Proposal

Image
​ By Daniel Kaufman In the world of real estate development and investment, we often look at how operating expenses impact the bottom line. A lower expense ratio usually means a higher net operating income (NOI) and, consequently, a higher asset value. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is currently floating a proposal that takes this concept to the extreme: the total elimination of property taxes on owner-occupied homes. While this sounds like a dream for homeowners, the macroeconomic ripple effects are complex. A new analysis from Realtor.com suggests this move could trigger an immediate 7% to 9% spike in home values. Here is my breakdown of what this proposal means for the Florida market, looking at it through the lens of valuation and long-term stability. The Valuation Jolt: Instant Equity The logic behind the projected price spike is straightforward financial mechanics. Future expenses (like property taxes) are "capitalized" into a home's present value. If you remove a pe...