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Showing posts from May, 2026

THE FRESHWATER FRONTIER: WHY MICHIGAN IS THE MOST UNDERRATED DEVELOPMENT MARKET IN AMERICA

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By Daniel Kaufman | May 2026 People ask me constantly where I see the next wave of real estate opportunity. They expect me to say Texas. Maybe Florida again. Sometimes they’re hoping I’ll say something contrarian like Cleveland or Gary, Indiana, so they can nod and feel sophisticated. I’m going to say Michigan. Not the Michigan of the rust belt narrative. Not “Detroit comeback story #47.” I’m talking about three specific markets that most coastal developers haven’t touched — and that’s exactly the point. The Upper Peninsula. Traverse City. Grand Rapids. Three completely different stories with one connecting thread: fresh water. You want to talk about the most undervalued long-term infrastructure asset in the world? It’s not data centers. It’s not lithium. It’s clean, abundant, accessible freshwater. And Michigan sits on top of more of it than almost anywhere on earth. Let me break this down market by market. THE UPPER PENINSULA: AMERICA’S LAST FRONTIER DISCOUNT Here’s a number that sho...

THE FED JUST GOT A NEW BOSS. HERE’S WHY EVERY DEVELOPER SHOULD CARE.

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​ Kevin Warsh walked into the Federal Reserve on Friday as its new chairman. Jerome Powell walked out — sort of. Powell, whose term as chair expired, is staying on the Fed’s board of governors. That means Warsh will be voting on rate policy alongside the man he replaced. If you think that dynamic isn’t going to create friction, I have a bridge loan to sell you. Let’s be honest about what this moment is. It’s historic. It’s messy. And it has direct downstream consequences for every developer financing a deal right now. The Setup Is Complicated Trump pushed Powell out in all but name — hammering him publicly for over a year for keeping rates too high. Now he’s installed Warsh, a former Fed governor who served during the Great Recession, with a four-year term as chair and a 14-year seat on the board. The message from the White House is unmistakable: get rates down. The problem? The FOMC isn’t listening. At last month’s meeting, three hawks — Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Ka...

The Supply Myth: Why Building More of the Same Won't Save Burlington

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​ By Daniel Kaufman — May 2026 I've been developing workforce and affordable housing in New England long enough to recognize a zombie idea when I see one. The zombie in question: if you just build more units, prices will fall. It sounds so reasonable. It's Econ 101. Increase supply, reduce price. Works great for soybeans. Doesn't work nearly as cleanly for the thing people sleep in. A newly published study out of UVM — authored by economist Joe Ament and doctoral student Chris McElroy — just put some real data behind that skepticism, specifically in Burlington. The researchers analyzed more than 4,000 single- and two-family home sales over two decades, from 2003 to 2023, and what they found should reshape the policy conversation across all of New England, not just Vermont. THE NUMBERS THAT STOP YOU COLD Burlington's average home price nearly tripled over the study period, climbing from roughly $188,000 in 2003 to almost $500,000 by 2023 — with the steepest acceleration ...