The Supply Myth: Why Building More of the Same Won't Save Burlington
By Daniel Kaufman — May 2026 I've been developing workforce and affordable housing in New England long enough to recognize a zombie idea when I see one. The zombie in question: if you just build more units, prices will fall. It sounds so reasonable. It's Econ 101. Increase supply, reduce price. Works great for soybeans. Doesn't work nearly as cleanly for the thing people sleep in. A newly published study out of UVM — authored by economist Joe Ament and doctoral student Chris McElroy — just put some real data behind that skepticism, specifically in Burlington. The researchers analyzed more than 4,000 single- and two-family home sales over two decades, from 2003 to 2023, and what they found should reshape the policy conversation across all of New England, not just Vermont. THE NUMBERS THAT STOP YOU COLD Burlington's average home price nearly tripled over the study period, climbing from roughly $188,000 in 2003 to almost $500,000 by 2023 — with the steepest acceleration ...