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A Tale of Two Cities: Why San Diego is Winning the Housing War (And Why LA is Losing)

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​ If you’ve been following the capital markets or trying to pencil a deal in Southern California lately, you already know the vibe shift is real. But the latest numbers paint a picture even starker than most of us realized. San Diego is currently building apartments at nearly twice the rate of Los Angeles. While construction in L.A. has plummeted 33% over the last three years—hitting an 11-year low—San Diego is up 10%. As someone who has navigated the entitlement trenches in both markets, I can tell you this isn't an accident. It’s a policy choice. We are witnessing a real-time case study in what happens when a city actually clears the path for builders versus what happens when a city lets politics strangle supply. The "San Diego Model": Certainty Over Politics For a developer, the most valuable commodity isn’t land or cheap debt—it’s certainty. San Diego gets this. They have a clear, enforced General Plan. They update their Community Plans and, crucially, if your project...
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The "Miami Boom" is a Mirage: Why the Million-Dollar Listing Narrative is Dangerous for Buyers

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​ If you’ve been reading the real estate headlines lately, you’ve likely seen the viral claim: "Miami has officially dethroned New York City as the capital of luxury real estate." The headline is based on a flashy statistic from a recent Realtor.com report, which notes that for the first time, Miami has more active listings priced over $1 million (~10,600) than New York City (~10,200). On the surface, this sounds like a victory lap for Florida. It paints a picture of unstoppable wealth migration and a market so hot that it has eclipsed the financial capital of the world. But if you dig into the actual data, this narrative falls apart. In fact, this isn't a sign of a booming market—it is a classic signal of a market in distress. Here is the truth that the brokers aren't telling you. 1. High Inventory is Not "Dominance"—It’s Indigestion The report frames the high number of million-dollar listings as a badge of honor. In reality, inventory count is just ...
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Tackling the Affordable Housing Crisis: Lessons from the Front Lines and Our Innovative Approach at Oldivai

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​ Hey everyone, Daniel Kaufman here, President of Oldivai and a real estate developer. I’ve led investments in thousands of housing units and always focused on projects that build stronger, more inclusive communities. Today, I want to dive into the real challenges of building affordable homes in today’s economy—drawing from the inspiring work of Upper Valley Habitat for Humanity—and then share how we’re shaking things up at Oldivai, especially with our exciting new workforce housing project in Shelburne, Vermont. As someone who’s passionate about sustainable development, I see these efforts as crucial for keeping our communities thriving. Let me start by sharing a story that really hit home for me. I recently came across the work of Upper Valley Habitat for Humanity, a nonprofit that’s been building affordable homes in Vermont and New Hampshire for nearly 40 years. Their executive director, Ashley Andreas, who took the reins last October, is navigating some tough waters with inflation...
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Why I’m Scooping Up Discounted Texas Townhomes in 2026 — And Banking Serious Cash Flow Before the Window Slams Shut

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​ I’m excited to share my latest real estate strategy that’s paying off big time: I’m scooping up discounted townhomes across Texas right now —and cashing in on surging rents that are creating a perfect storm for investors like us. If you’re sitting on the sidelines, this window won’t stay open forever. Here’s why I’m going all-in on Texas townhomes and condos in 2025/2026, and why you should consider jumping in before prices rebound. The Texas Townhome Market Is Offering Serious Discounts While the national market for attached homes (townhouses and condos) only dipped slightly less than 1% year-over-year, Texas saw a much sharper correction— values dropped more than 4% compared to the previous year, according to real estate analytics from firms like Cotality and trends echoed in Realtor.com data. This isn’t just a blip. It’s created a rare opportunity where you can buy these properties at prices reminiscent of 2022, but rent them out at today’s higher rates. Investors Are Piling ...
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Despite What Brokers and the Media Are Telling You, the Data Doesn’t Lie: Florida Had the Most Foreclosures in the U.S. in 2025

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​ Hey everyone, Daniel Kaufman here.  Welcome back to my real estate development blog, where I’ve been watching the Florida real estate market unravel firsthand.  Brokers and media outlets keep spinning tales of “strong fundamentals” and “healthy corrections,” but let’s cut through the noise. The data paints a grim picture: Florida led the nation in foreclosures in 2025, and with interest rates climbing, things aren’t looking up for 2026.  If you’re a developer eyeing property investments or just curious about the housing scene, buckle up, this is a wake-up call. The Foreclosure Fiasco: Florida Takes the Crown Last year, 2025, saw a staggering 367,460 foreclosure filings across the U.S., a 14% jump from 2024. Sure, that’s still 25% below 2019 levels, but here’s the kicker: Florida had the highest foreclosure rate at 0.44% of residential properties. That’s ahead of states like Delaware (0.42%), South Carolina (0.41%), and Illinois (0.40%). Why? Experts point to skyrocke...
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