The "Unlocking" Is Coming: Why 6% Is the Tipping Point for the Housing Market
For four years, the national housing market has felt like a machine with a seized engine. Ever since mortgage rates spiked from their pandemic-era lows, we’ve been living through the "lock-in effect"—a standoff where sellers won’t budge from their 3% rates and buyers can’t find the inventory they need. But as an investor and developer, I’m always looking for the "inflection point." We are finally seeing one. With 30-year fixed rates hitting 6.01%—a three-year low—the "rate gap" is beginning to close. For a select group of metros, particularly in the Midwest and South, we are about to see a significant "unlocking" of inventory and opportunity. The Math of the "Rate Gap" The concept is simple: the closer today’s market rate gets to a homeowner’s existing mortgage rate, the more likely they are to list. While the national median for outstanding mortgages is between 3% and 4%, there are key markets where homeowners hold slightly higher ra...