Peak chaser, world explorer, skyline creator. Living life one slope, trip, and development at a time

By Daniel Kaufman Lately, a lot of folks have asked me the same question: Are we seeing signs that apartment demand is slowing down? My short answer: No. In fact, demand is stronger than ever. The numbers don’t lie. According to RealPage, Q1 2025 posted the highest first-quarter net absorption in over 25 years, with more than 138,000 units absorbed. CoStar puts the figure slightly lower at 128,000, calling it the second-best Q1 in the same time frame. Whether it’s #1 or #2 doesn’t really matter—what matters is that absorption this strong in Q1 is almost unheard of. For context, we typically expect this kind of leasing velocity in Q2 or Q3, when the market hits its seasonal stride. But this year, the demand hit early—and it hit hard. Where’s the demand coming from? All over. Texas remains red-hot, as expected, but strong leasing activity extended across the Sun Belt and into key metros on the East Coast, West Coast, and Midwest. The trailing-12-month absorption is now nearing 2021 level...

A 90-day tariff pause might sound like a win—but for commercial real estate pros, it’s far from a green light. President Trump’s temporary halt on new tariffs grabbed headlines, but let’s be real: the uncertainty hasn’t gone anywhere. A 10% duty still applies to most imports, and Chinese goods are getting hit with a whopping 125% rate. For developers, operators, and investors, that’s not exactly the clarity we’ve been waiting for. Construction Feels the Pinch Construction and development are still stuck in a wait-and-see cycle. Higher materials costs—from steel to fixtures—are already squeezing budgets. And with trade policy still up in the air, lenders and capital partners aren’t rushing to loosen the purse strings. The result? Slower project timelines, more conservative underwriting, and in some cases, paused deals entirely. For firms in the thick of ground-up development or major rehabs, the tariff pause is like putting a Band-Aid on a leak. Multifamily’s Silver Lining Interestingly...

For years, Florida has been the poster child for post-pandemic real estate booms. But today, that narrative is shifting. According to new data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), three Florida markets—Tampa, Winter Haven, and West Palm Beach—are at “very high risk” of home price declines in 2025. That doesn’t mean the Florida story is over—but it’s evolving. For developers and investors, this is a critical inflection point. What the Data Is Saying Cotality’s analytics show these metros have a 70% or greater likelihood of home price drops in the coming year, with key indicators flashing yellow: • Tampa: Median list price of $463,000, down 0.9% YoY and 1.6% since Q4 2024 • Winter Haven: Median list price of $305,000, down 0.9% YoY • West Palm Beach: Median list price of $369,500, down 0.5% YoY While these aren’t dramatic crashes, they reflect a cooling trend that savvy investors can’t afford to ignore. “What we’re seeing is a rebalancing after an overheated cycle,” says Daniel Kaufman, P...